on 01-10-2008 5:13 PM
Hi Gurus,
If my forecast has to give more weightage to recent history, then what do I need to setup? For example, my forecast is more if my recent two months data is more and if I have few in last two months, the forecast is low. Should I use the historical data model 60 and use weightage profile in univariate profile?
Thanks.
Hi Raj.
Overall, the weighting of history is managed by the Alpha factor which is available in many of the univariate models. The example given in the sap help shows how the alpha factor influences the calculation of the Basic Value:
"For example, an alpha value of 0.5 weights historical values as follows:
1st historical value: 50%
2nd historical value: 25%
3rd historical value: 12.5%
4th historical value: 6.25%
The weightings of historical data can be changed by a single parameter. Therefore, it is relatively easy to respond to changes in the time series."
Hope this helps.
Mark.
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