Forecasting with context

[former_member206038]

Hi,

we have been able to use PAL Forecase smoothening algorithm to forecast value in a time series.

Ex: Feeding last 12 months usage to forecast next 6 months.

Now, we want to extend and contexualize the forecasting with parameters like region, usage of specific resource type etc.

Ex:

• Demand Forecast of resources (equipment types/personnel types) for future jobs
  • Use past months historical jobs to predict demand for each resource types
  • Like which customer will have more demands for which Resource Type
• Revenue and margin forecast based on Field tickets & margin analysis for past months

Can someone provide any pointers on how to extend PAL forecasting algorithms to be used with additional parameters ?

[achab · Accepted solution]

Hi Thangaraj,

You might also want to have a look to the time series capabilities of Automated Analytics. You have the possibilities to use extra-predictors and through scripting you can create many models, segmented according to region, product...

Please see the two tutorials from the one & only Former Member here:

Thanks & regards

Antoine

[former_member206038 · Accepted solution]

Thanks for sharing this Antoine.
, it was very helpful.

I looked at "Multiple Time Series" in detail.

In case we want to run time series forecast for say for each Region & product sales, do we need to pick and run it for each unique combination of region & product ?

Is thr any better way or better algorithms which can do this together ? Like we feed the time, region, product & sales for 24 months and it can forecast for next 6 months for each of those region & product combinations ? I understood it can be achieved using scripting by run the algorithms in loops for each combination but wanted to know if there are other options.

[achab · Accepted solution]

Hi,

In the current state of the product (Automated Analytics),scripting is the way.

We have new capabilities that are planned to address this in the mid-term, it's a bit early though to share any details (please refer to roadmap slide 32 - Segmented Models Management: https://websmp207.sap-ag.de/~sapidb/011000358700001160102012E.pdf)

You should also have a look to HANA Demand Forecasting component in Expert Analytics, I think this can address your question as well.

Thanks & regards

Antoine

[former_member206038 · Accepted solution]

Thanks, I already looked at UDF but its not configured in our HCP yet. I am checking with our admins on CARR licenses or anything else required to enable this in the HCP HAN DB ?

[achab · Accepted solution]

Hi, good question!

For installation/upgrade of the UDF AFL see here: http://service.sap.com/sap/support/notes/2050229

I am not clear if you can install this on HCP as well, looping in case someone there can help.

Also see Unified Demand Forecast (UDF) - Demand Data Foundation - SAP Library

Thanks & regards

Antoine