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Automatic Procedure 2 generating negative values

Hi all,

We are using Automatic Procedure 2 (Strategy 56) for Forecast generation.

Forecast Profile Settings are :

Forecast Horizon: 24 P (Months)

History Horizon: 36 P (Months)

According to the Planning Area Settings, for Forecast KF-Negative values are not allowed.

For few codes when I tried to generate forecast interactively its giving an error message:

“Negative values are not allowed for the forecast key figure”

While for other codes even if they have a decline trend, system is not generating negative values instead populating zeros.

Note:

There are 4 weeks in past for which History is not available. But these weeks do not fall into the History Horizon of 36 P.

Analysis


I performed no. of tests and found different results:

  1. 1. When I deleted all the values prior to those 4 missing weeks, system is generating the forecast Properly.

Message:  Automatic Procedure 2 called

                 Seasonal test negative

                 Trend Test Positive

                 Constant model selected.

  1. 2. When I randomly put some approximate values in those 4 missing weeks again system is generating the Forecast properly.

Message:  Automatic Procedure 2 called

                 Seasonal test negative

                 Trend Test Positive

                 Trend model selected.

  1. 3. When I reduces the history horizon from 36 P to 35 P, system is generating the Forecast.

Message:  Automatic Procedure 2 called

                 Seasonal test negative

                 Trend Test Positive

                 Constant model selected.

Q1. Why the system is generating negative values for few codes while populating zeros for others ?

Q2. Why those 4 weeks are impactig the forecast, even when they are outside the History Horizon ?

Q3. Why constant model is selected in some cases even if “Trend test” is positive ?



Please let me know if you need any further information. TIA.

           

Regards

Lalit

Former Member
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