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Statistical forecast - automatic model

former_member225637
Active Participant
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Dear Experts,

I have specific question regarding statistical forecast in DP

i am using automatic model selection -2

outlier correction - expost method

mape upper limit set to -20 % in diagnosis group

forecast profile - uni variant

now  i have

Invoice History - 

Jan-1313-Feb13-Mar13-Apr13-May13-Jun14-Jul13-Aug13-Sep13-Oct15-Nov13-Dec
10520424445522452567766889100

                             

now i run statistical forecast

what will be the result

Jan-1414-Feb14-Mar14-Apr14-May14-Jun14-Jul14-Aug14-Sep14-Oct15-Nov14-Dec
10520424445522452567766889100

my question is does jan 13 invoice history is taken for jan 14 forecast ??  like wise for other month too

please advise how the system use time bucket and to calculate the forecast

i also have question regarding ex-post method and median method and none

whats the difference between these methods

Regards
Raju

Accepted Solutions (1)

Accepted Solutions (1)

marianoc
Active Contributor
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Hi Raju,

Take a look of the SAP documentation. Here you have the detail of what the Auto Model Sel 2 is doing:

Automatic Model Selection Procedure 2 - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library

Anyway, maybe because I don't understand exactly what the system is doing or maybe because I have found inconsistencies, I would not use the automatic model selection models in APO DP.

Take a look of these articles talking about some inconsistencies:

Getting Best Fit to Work in SAP? - Demand Planning

Best Fit Forecasting in SAP DP - SAP Planning

As you can see in the first article, Auto Model Sel 2 uses to copy the data.

If you are trying to identify the model, take a look of the Sales Pattern, then run different methods, play with the parameters (alpha, beta, gamma) and determined what should be the model and the set of parameters base on the MAPE.

For ex-post method (constant), you can read this article:

Looking at the SAP help documentation you can see the difference between Ex-post and Median methods:

Ex-Post Forecast - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library

Median Method - Univariate Forecasting - SAP Library

Kind Regards,

Mariano

former_member225637
Active Participant
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Thanks Mariano

Thread closed

Former Member
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Hello Mariano

I have tried to access the two links you have provided

Getting Best Fit to Work in SAP? - Demand Planning

Best Fit Forecasting in SAP DP - SAP Planning

but the sites are not available. I keep on receiving a message that a firewall SW, called Websphere, does not allow me access to the site and that i have to provide my email so they can send me an unlock email. Any chance you have these documents available?

Best regards and many thanks,

Nikos

Answers (0)