How do we select the forecast strategy if we are having 1000 products for 1000 location ?

[Former Member]

Dear Colleagues,

Suppose we are having 1000 location product combinations and each selection or combination having different historical data , then how do we

select the suitable forecast strategy for each . Since it is not feasible to analyse the history pattern for each selection and select the forecast strategy, then how such types of situations are handled in Industries .

Regards,

Mayank

[Former Member]

Mayank,

There is no way you can escape analyzing history. This is if you want your DP to do a better job than a typewriter. The first major decision you need to make is at what CVC level is forecast most USEFUL for the purposes. Purpose can be supply planning or some kind of long term planning for capacity evaluation. If this is former, usually forecasts can be carried out at product level or some attribute of product. Such a forecast can then be dis aggregated by location by using some proportions that you can conveniently chose. You can also chose to carry out forecast by product x location for important, high volume products and locations.

True that SAP does not provide for mass maintenance of master forecast profiles but that is a later problem to solve. First thing is analyzing history and deciding what selections you are OK to carry out the forecast for. You then carry out a forecast with some random forecast profile and then change parameters as desired in the interactive forecast screen such that forecast is ACCEPTABLE to YOU. You then save and give it a different name and assign this to the selection such that next time the selection is forecast, it uses the profile you assigned.

To carry out mass change of forecast profiles e.g. a parameter like alpha or sigma for 100's of forecast profiles, you need to find out what provision exists in spro to do this or consider writing a simple program.

There are a host of segmentation strategies you can employ to group the selections you wish to analyze and forecast. You do not have to 100% mechanical.

If you do not want to apply any mind, then run automatic forecast strategies for each product x location combination and see what forecast, messages and models you get.

Hope this helps

Thanks

BS