Analysing Historical Data

[Former Member]

Hi all,

We are in the process of switching to SAP APO statistical forecast tool and would like some input from experts please.

I am end user and I would like to know

1. How to analyse historical data i.e. Look for Trend, Seasonality etc
2. How to change parameters Alpha,Beta,Gamma and Sigma and how to understand what they are doing?
3. How to select best fit model?
4. Are there any resources in market giving above information with some real time examples?

Many thanks for your input

Abhi

[Former Member]

JA,

I assume you are talking about using statistical forecasting within the Demand Planning module.  Please confirm.

In general, SAP provides standard tools; which I am sure you had in your pre-APO solution.  SAP will allow you to import collections of data (these are typically Key figures that represent historical data) into Demand Planning.  From here, similar to all of the other major planning software packages, you can manually select from a number of common statistical forecast types.  A manual selection is a good methodology if you have intimate knowledge of your product lines, and you already know exactly how your marketplace should be forecasted.

SAP also performs 'best fit' analyses, and will automagically select the forecast that mathematically seems to do the best job forecasting your data.

All forecasting in DP is done through forecasting profiles. You can create and maintain your forecast profiles using APO transaction /SAPAPO/MC96B.  All the items you mentioned in your post can be maintained here.

How to analyze historical data i.e. Look for Trend, Seasonality etc

I don't think anyone but statisticians would ever attempt such a thing.  Let the algorithms within APO handle the heavy lifting; it will automatically do such analyses and then create forecasts accordingly, all with logs to tell you what it did.

Many companies will, however, create additional reports (a common one is called a 'waterfall' report) which will compare 'forecasts' with 'actual'.  Such reports are often done in BW and your BW team will help you once you have your design specs in place.  See

Monitoring of Forecast Accuracy - SAP Library

For more into about Statistical foresting in Demand Planning, see the SAP online help at

Creating a Master Forecast Profile - Definition/Redefinition of Forecast Models - SAP Library

Best Regards,

DB49

[Former Member]

Hi DB

Your reply is good.

We do face the same situation with our Business.

I tell you first, we are using SPP .

For the SPP forecasts, our people want to do the same type of anaylysis and check the SAP/SPP created forecasts are correct ?!.

Can you help me in this,  ours is SPP forecast.

regards

SRS Kannan

[Former Member]

SRS,

In SPP you may not wish to use Demand Planning (but anything is possible).

You may want instead to look at the Planning Service Manager.

Use of the Planning Service Manager for SPP - SAP Library

Since this is a new topic, I suggest that if you need more info, you raise a new thread.

Best Regards,

DB49

[Former Member]

DB

Thanks.  Will raise a new thread, as I am particular on the usagae of the Planning results of Foreasting through SPP

Regards

SRS Kannan