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Statistical Model for New Product Fcst

Former Member
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Hello all:

I'm looking to find which statistical model would be the correct one to use for new products.  We are on APO SCM 7.0 and upgrading to EhP3 in a week.  I have products with several months of history only, but would like a stastical model which would show a growth trend.  I have set the forecast profile to look at 12 months of history, as our new products would only have data within that timeframe.  Some materials will only have 6 or 9 months of data, so I would want the model to ignore the initial months of zeros. 

I understand that I can check the "Ignore Leading Zeros" in the Forecast Profile, but that setting is ignored by most models.  It works for a Moving Average model, but this will not generate a growth pattern. 

Any ideas?  Is there anything in Ehp2 or Ehp3 which can designate a material as a "new product"?

Thanks.

Andrea

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Answers (1)

Answers (1)

emani_raghavendra
Participant
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Dear Andrea

While reading your question i thought that creating 3 different forecast profiles ( With same strategies and different horizions) will solve your problem.

The 3 different forecast profiles willbe like one considering 12 months past history , other considering 9 months past history and the other 6 months past history.

We can assign these profiles to the respective combinations while running the jobs.

Just thought of so  but i dont have idea on Ehp2 or Ehp3 which can designate a material as a new product

Thanks.

Regards

Emani