DP quieries

[prasnop]

Hi Experts,

Could some one please explain the difference between Ex-post forecast and Outlier corrections?

Thanks,

[Former Member]

Hi Prasnop,

Ex- Post Forecast is Past period forecast.

The ex-post is the "forecast for the past".The system looks at half of the history period as if it was future and forecast for this period based on the rest of the history.This enables the system to calculate the forecast accuracy. The system needs to see the forecast (the ex post) against the actual history values.

The system carries out an ex-post forecast twice: the first time when it performs outlier correction, the second time when it calculates the forecast based on the corrected history

The system determines the ex-post horizon based on your history horizon (forecast profile). Since you used outline correction settings as ex-post method, the system calculates the ex-post forecast twice.

• Determine the ex-post forecast
• Define threshold limits (ex-post + sigma * MAD)
• Perform outline correction i.e. any history value lies outside of threshold limits) and correct history.
• Calculate the ex-post forecast again based on the corrected history.

Regards

Harsh