How to choose a forecast strategy

[Former Member]

Hi All SAP Guru's

I have a doubt related to forecast strategy. Who decide that which particular forecast strategy will be used for forecasting. Ans what is the base of such decision. Say suppose when one can decide that we have to use moving average method, or weight moving average method or constant model with 1st order exponential smoothing.

Please answer

[Former Member]

Hi

Is there are link to know how the same Forecast Strategy is selected in SPP (SERVICE PARTS PLANNING)

regards

SRS Kannan

[sourabh_jain66]

Hi ravi,

Please find an interesting article on choosing correct forecast technique, you might find it helpful.

http://hbr.org/1971/07/how-to-choose-the-right-forecasting-technique/ar/1

Rgds

Sourabh

[somnath_manna]

There are some good articles (though old still very useful) in SCM Wiki APO-DP page

http://wiki.sdn.sap.com/wiki/display/SCM/APO-DP

Historical Data Analysis and Statistical Model Selection in APO Demand Planning

Basic Principles of Statistics and Forecasts in your Daily and Business Life

Bottomline you need to display the timeseries history data in graph to see the pattern to broadly identify what method / model is better suited. After that it is tweaking with the respective parameters to have minimum error measures. The other option is to go for Auto Model Selection but that is performance-intensive. 

Hope this helps.

Somnath

[Former Member]

HI Its depend on the config. At the time of configuration its decide to how to proceed further. Basically its depend on your planning requirement.