selection exclusions not considered in statistical forecasting

[Former Member]

HI,

Our planning object structure has total 6 characteristics and some of them are product, location, division and region. Product has product class as a navigational attribute.

We have created 2 selection ids in planning book.

id1: display "division" and entered some divisions and excluded some regions and product class

id2: display "division" and entered some divisions and excluded some regions.

When we ran statistical forecasting, the statistical models ( moving average model used but we tried other models too) the system is still forecasting for the excluded selections in planning books.

Here are my questions:

1. In case of id1 since there is a navigational attribute, can we use navigational attributes in statistical forecasting.? I remember not but not totally sure...any supporting documentation or references are helpful.

2. In case of id2, I can not imagine why the excluded values are forecasted..even the POS characteristic value exclusions are ignored. I think this is a bug...did any one see this kind of behavior? any suggestions or OSS notes are appreciated.

Thanks.

[former_member209769 · Accepted solution]

Hi,

Using navigational attributes as selection criteria does not cause issues. It would get considered while selecting the CVCs for forecast.

I assume you are using some background job for forecasting.

What is teh aggregation level in the background job variant? You should select the required characteristic level in the aggregation of the background job variant, else what you are doing is just selecting the data based on your selection criteria, and then data will get disaggregated to all the CVC levels. (so select levels like region and division in aggregation)

e.g. if you only select the material in your aggregation level, then forecast would happen at material level based on your selections. After the forecast, the data would get disaggregated to all CVCs for the materials as per your aggregation settings in planning area.

PS: Also, what aggegation setting "calculation type" have you maintained for Stat Forecast in your planning area?

Hope this is helpful.

Thanks - Pawan

[Former Member · Accepted solution]

HI Pawan,

Thanks for taking time to answer.

"What is the aggregation level in the background job variant?"

You are right in your assumption that we are using background job for forecasting. In /sapapo/mc8e, the job has aggregation level at only division level.

"else what you are doing is just selecting the data based on your selection criteria, and then data will get disaggregated to all the CVC levels"

I will try this but my question is: when we go into the planning book or CCs list in MC62 and look up, the products are not part of the resulting combinations after filter.

In planning book, I load the selection with exclusions and then use the "drilldown" ( double down arrow icon in top left side pane where we see selections) and go to product, the products are not part of the list there...

They are however part of the selection when I load with out exclusions.

"Also, what aggegation setting "calculation type" have you maintained for Stat Forecast in your planning area?"

For the stat forecast keyfigure :

Calculatn Type: P

Time-Based Disaggreg.: P

Disaggregation Key Figure: APODPDANT

Thanks again.

[former_member209769 · Accepted solution]

Hi,

Your aggregation level explains your results.

What is happening is that based on your selection criteria, divisions are getting selected.

Since your aggregation level is division, hence for whatever divisions have got selected as per your selection criteria, forecasting would be done based on history aggregated at division level. Now it doesn't matter whether you maintained exclusions at any other level or not.

Result would be forecast for the selected divisions at an aggregated level. Now, this forecast would get disaggregated to ALL the CVCs which contain these selected divisions, and the disaggregation would happen as per the calculation type that you maintained for the stat forecast.

If you don't want the forecast to be disaggregated to levels below division, then do the forecast at a lower level of aggregation, meaning select all the characteristics in "aggregation" corresponding to the levels which you want to exclude.

Hope this explains the situation to you.

One way you can say that the "display" characteristic (topmost row) that you specify in selection when you load data in interactive planning corresponds to the aggregation level that you maintain in background.

Thanks - Pawan

[Former Member · Accepted solution]

Thanks a lot Pawan. You are right on.

Here is also another note on that - saying what you said.

1667352 - Different results with background and foreground statistical forecast