Stat forecast Model selection in DP

[Former Member]

Hello experts,

I have few queries related to DP namely what is Statistical Forecast, what is consensus forecast.

i usually get forecast from demand planner in excel sheet. it has contents such as FC (3 months), depots, SKU, sale.

i deduct sale from current month FC and keep the rest two moth FC as it is and load into the system i.e. DP. so actually i want to know the FC which i am loading is either Stat or consensus Fc and what is the difference between two???

Another part is...as described earlier FC is given by demand planner which is nothing but a manual activity. i have heard that APO DP itself can generate FC automatically by giving certain necessary input, so what are that inputs.?.pls give me step by step procedure to do that as i am completely a rookie in this field.

Also there are some FC models in DP, so i want to know how many models are there, which models to be used where, and as per my above description can you tell me which models we are using or which FC model to be used so that i can generate FC through system only and can map against the demand planner's FC, so its as close to it and will reduce manual activity of Forecasting...pls help...

Thanks in advance..

Regards,

jigar

[Former Member]

Hi Jigar,

STAT FCST: By definition, Statistical forecast is projection of sales in the future based in past sales using statistical methods.

CONS FCST: In general, combination of forecasts derived using different forecasting methods. Again different companies may have different definition for cons fcst bepending on the understanding.

You can go thru below link to understand SAP APO Demand Planning.

http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/8f/9d6937089c2556e10000009b38f889/frameset.htm

You should be able to find different forecasting methods under demand planning process.

Regards,

Harshil Desai

[Former Member]

Hello Experts,

Thank you for your valuable response, but the link that you have mentioned helps in gneration of FC through system,

but the other part is still unanswerd i.e. FC models....

pls provide some info about diff forecast models and their applications, also which is to be selected when....and other as described in previous post..

thanks in advance,

Regards,

Jigar Panchal.

[Former Member]

Hello Jigar,

Go to transaction /sapapo/mc96b, select your planning area, master forecast profile name, forecast keyfigure and horizons. Then select Univariate profile tab, select history keyfigure and do F4 on Forecast Strategy. When you do F4 you can see 28 strategies. It is very difficult to explain all. If you don't know which model to use then choose, strategy 56 which is automatic model selection 2. Depending on your history values, system automatically gives the best model. Few important models are

1) Seasonal model - when there is forecast only in a particular season depending on the history.

2) Trend model - depending on the trend

3) Croston model - The Croston method is a forecast strategy for products with intermittent demand.

4) Manual forecast - Forecast strategy 70, manual forecast, allows you to specify manually the basic value, the trend value, the trend dampening profile, and/or the seasonal indices in interactive demand planning.

etc etc.

For more about each model click on the below link

http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/19/98ad1765354d7ba54b1eb164c377e0/frameset.htm

Definition/Redefinition of forecast model->Creating a Master forecast profile->Univariate Forecasting--->Forecasting strategies, you will select individual model and go through.

Hope this helps.

Thanks and Regards,

Nithin.

[Former Member]

Thank you Nitin for the info provided..

still if any queries, i will get back to you.

Regards,

Jigar