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Forecast bias in APO DP

Former Member
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I am using APO DP V5.1.

Statistical forecasts show a consistent positive bias.

Can anyone advise on how I can address this point?

Thanks...

Accepted Solutions (1)

Accepted Solutions (1)

Former Member
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There is nothing such an automatic bias correction in APO DP. If you see bias in the forecast, either the forecast model chosen is not the right one (in this case, you should change the model) or there is no right model for your data (in this case, you should forecast manually).

Example for the first case: data with positive trend, forecasted with a constant model will show consistent bias. The solution in this case is to change to a trend model with good parameters.

hope this helps,

Pablo

Answers (1)

Answers (1)

Former Member
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Hi

It's also possible that you have the 'right' forecast model, but need to fine tune parameters.

If you could tell the group what model you use and how you measure bias, you might get more inputs.

RIshi Menon