Posting it again for anyone to give you some inputs.
We ran forecast on a selection ID that has all Product-Customer combinations using Auto Model 56 in the bakground on Prod-cust level. The system has proposed a strategies like constant, croston, seasonal and so on ..which is fine.
We have set up a limit of 80 for the Error Metric MAPE in the Diagnosis group. If I am not wrong, MAPE is a percentage value and 80 should mean 80%. But after the forcast run using 56, the system generated abnormally high MAPE values, for example MAPE values obtained are in 10's of thousands like 2,956,009.830 and even 10,000,000.000 . These are no where close to our limit 80. MAPE is the average of absolute percentage differences between Acutals and Expost forecast. So how could system generated MAPE be so high for all the combinations . Are we supposed to read it differently, because i thought auto model though may not propose the best fit model parameters, but atleast not give us a forecast which has such high MAPE values. I was expecting MAPE within 100 or worst case 200, 300 but not thousands and millions..
Am I missing something ? Please help - Susan
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