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Forecast Not generated due to High MAPE

Former Member
0 Kudos

Hello,

We have an issue where High MAPE values are leading to Forecast not getting generated for majority of the CVCs.

The forecast log shows:

-


Message generated after forecast run:

30,233 characteristics combinations processed

10,079 characteristics combinations successfully saved

0 characteristics combination not saved

20,154 characteristics combination contained errors

-


Here, The 20, 154 combinations have error due to High MAPE values which is way high than the ones maintained in the Diagnosis group. For example, the MAPE determined by system for a given CVC was - 14821.80, and the limit we set was 80

The issue is that, for all the 20,154 CVCs that had high MAPE , forecast was not generated or Saved. Is there any way we can make the system still generate the forecast inspite of the high MAPE errors values

The need is to get the forecast first, and we fine tune the forecast in the following steps. But here due to high difference between MAPE limit set up in the Diagnosis group and system generated values, we are not able to generate any forecast.

Also sometimes the Process chain step fails due to these errors.

Accepted Solutions (1)

Accepted Solutions (1)

Former Member
0 Kudos

Hi Susan,

While defining activity to run the DP in background, you have a option of selecting messages where you would like to save forecast.

Goto Activity of the DP background job.

Push button ' Select messages'.

There select 'MAPE is too high'. So now even if this error occurs system will save forecast figures.

Best regards,

Deepthi

Former Member
0 Kudos

I would also suggest other messages which might apply to avoid this issue.

Thanks

Hanu

Former Member
0 Kudos

Deepthi, Thanks for providing the solution, This worked well when we used the Auto Model. Most of the CVCs have the forecast saved. But we still have two jobs failing sometimes that use Winters/Seasonal trend models.

Hanu, Thanks for your input, I selected All the messages and now they dont seem to fail. But is there something i would be losing by selecting all the messages. Is it a good practice ? But the jobs seem to working fine after applying these changes.

Thanks

Susan

Former Member
0 Kudos

Hi Susan,

Please have a look at the error messages details when you run forecast with 'Winters/Seasonal trend models' and select appropriate messages in the activity.

The best practice would be , review all the error message options with business and choose the ones that can be allowed , accordingly you may allow only those messages in the activity.

Best regards,

Deepthi

Former Member
0 Kudos

Thats exactly what I did before my last response. I selected the same error messages i got in the forecast job. But still the jobs failed, so i selected all the messages. And it ran fine. Thanks.

Answers (1)

Answers (1)

Former Member
0 Kudos

I found myself with this exact same problem where the batch job would fail due to "MAPE too high".  I created a Diagnosis Group with a MAPE threshold of 60% (to use for forecast tuning).  I tried selecting all messages in the Activity I defined for the batch job but I am still getting failures (red lights) in the spool.  However, when I execute a forecast interactively there is no problem.  In short, the solution above is not working for me.  Does anyone have any other suggestions or insight into this problem where the stat background job is failing due to the diagnosis group?  Thank you.