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forecast model

Former Member
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hi,

What is the conceptual differnce between seasonal model and seasonal trend model.

Thanks,

Prabhat

Accepted Solutions (0)

Answers (1)

Answers (1)

Former Member
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Prabhat,

Seasonal trend will attempt to identify and forecast regular changes based on designated seasons. For instance, in a model where you identify an analysis period of 5 years, and a 4 seasons per year, the forecast will attempt to identify changes in requirements that occurred regularly during each of the four seasons in the period, and predict the future accordingly. Its a bit like having individual forecasts for each of the defined seasons, and then rolled up into a summary model that includes all seasons.

Seasonal trend is the same, except that it also considers the changes in the mean (average) rqments during the analysis period. So, in addition to forecasting seasonal changes, it will also identify longer term trends, and include these trends in the forecast.

Graphs on

http://help.sap.com/erp2005_ehp_04/helpdata/EN/a5/63202543a211d189410000e829fbbd/frameset.htm

make it much easier to understand than I could explain in a few words.

Rgds,

DB49

Former Member
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Thanks DB49