Forecasting of a product

[Former Member]

Hi

This is a general case ....

Suppose if i have a new product...say a "X" ..which is a new one , one of its type . Now i want to do a forecast for this product.

There is no history for this product , there is no old product which is similar to this one, also there is no competitor data available for this to do a forecast...

Which are the possible methods by which forecast can be done for this , or how can forecst be done for this ..Please help...

Regards

RK

[Former Member]

Hi Rakesh,

You can have three KFs in planning book. statistical forecast, maual forecast and Final forecast. You can have a macro which checks if maually entered values exist in manaul forecast KF, in that case populate Final forecast from manual foreast KF. Otherrwisefinal forecast KF equals statistical forecast KF.

At the beginning you can manually enter values in manuel forecast KF based on inputs from marketing team and it will reflect in Final forecast. As the product sells and you get enough history, then statistical forcasting can be done and you can stop entering values in maual forecast KF. So now statistical forecast is populated in final forecast KF. Final forecast KF values are to be used for send forecast to further processes.

regards

Sanjeev

[Former Member]

Hi Rakesh,

For forecasting a product, historical data always helps to fix the exact

forecast.

In cases, if you dont have forecast history available, then you can choose

one of the following ways

1) Try with manual forecast based on intelligence based forecasting

2) Try using customer given forecast if available

3) Try generating own forecast values which matches budget and overall

sales figures

4) Try using similar products which were sold in the past and if you feel

that data will match somehow and then you make modifications in the

outcome generated

I suggest you can go far manual forecast based on the marketing advise

and customer needs in order to avoid pile up of inventory

Regards

R. Senthil Mareeswaran.