Hi! Nagesh,
Standard SAP DP divides your forecasting technique under three major umbrella
Depending on the pattern of the data history the forecast models are selected.
1. Univariate: This model is used when the sales data has very less noise in it and finding a pattern is very easy . you can base your dorecast on any seasonal or causal factors in Univariate model
Univariate forecast can be modelled using following Models.
Constant
Trend
Season
Trend &Season
Sporadic
2. Multilenear regression : these are used in which sales data is based in past sales but you also consider sesonality of causals factors. The general idea of MLR is to find a correlation between the dependent
key figure (the one you want to forecast, usually sales history) and other
key figures using historical data.
3. Composite is a combination of the above 2 .
No model can give you the exact future forecast but u will have to do various simulation run & incorpoarte Market intelligence to select the optimum model.
Regards
Vaibhav Sareen
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