How to carryout Demand Planning when season repeats every 300 days

[Former Member]

Gurus,

In a geography a festival repeats once in 300 days . There is a seasonal demand for products during the festival. How do I go about configuration in APO DP so that I am able to apply appropriate forecasting strategy, say in univariate forecasting?

Sivabaalan

[Former Member]

Hi Sivabalan,

One method that may work for this situation is to use forecast strategy 56 with any CVC that exhibits the 300-day pattern and modify the Periods parameter. For example, if your planning area is set to weeks (this assumes demand history is bucketed into days or weeks) set the model parameters to:

Forecast strategy: 56

Alpha: 0.30 (for example)

Gamma: 0.65 (for example)

Sigma: 1.25 (for example)

Periods: 42

Variation: 1

Periods = 42 since there are 42.85 weeks in a 300-day period. The Variation = 1 will tell the system to try the model with a seasonality of 41 weeks and 43 weeks. Whichever yields the best error will be chosen by the system.

If your demand history is bucketed in months (or fiscal months) and your planning area is set to months / fiscal months, then change the Periods to 10 and Variation to 1 (since 300 days is not exactly 10 months).

If your planning area is set to days (for retail , maybe?), you are one lucky guy. You can use Forecast Strategy 31 and Periods = 300. This assumes that the period is exactly 300 days with no wiggle room for slight variation.

Hope this helps. I have no experience with Seasonal Planning in APO so I'm approaching this from how we would do it in our system.

Dan

[Former Member]

Sivabalan K S,

I guess seasonal demand model in APO follows gregorian calendar (English calendar of 12 months). So to handle your requirement there could be a need for custom development.

BR,

SB.

[Former Member]

Hi Sivabaalan,

Another way of doing will be to consider your festival as a promotion.

This way you can , analyse the impact of your promotion in the past, clean your histroy and add the promotion in the future...

Thanks and Regards

Julien