ramadan forecasting

[Former Member]

hi sir

in every Ramadan period the product demand is reaches peak stage. in this case how i can forecast??

i am forecasting for 18 weeks on rolling basis every month taking 3 years of historical data .

in this case how i can forecasting in the ramzon period. which method and model i choose for that one???

[Former Member · Accepted solution]

Hi Dallyanusha,

In transaction /SAPAPO/SDP_SEASON - Seasonal Planning, you need to

maintain the following

1) Season

2) Season year

3) Seasonal pattern

4) Assign it to planning area

5) Maintain the assignment rules

6) Then start assigning.

Regards

R. Senthil Mareeswaran.

[Former Member]

Hi,

Then there is no issue, please run the statistical Fcst. using the Univariate Master profile using the model which you are using currently it should take care of your requirments for the Ramadan period. You can run this interactively for some materials and observe the results. Please let me know if that meets your requirement.

Thanks,

Harsh

[Former Member]

Hi,

Is it the pattern that happens during every year Ramadan period, in such case the statistical Forecasting would take care of that , you need not maintain any special forecasting techniques for this. Please use Sales Order history as the ket figure for Statisatical Forecasting.

Thanks,

Harsh

[Former Member]

hi sir

the pattern happens in every ramadan session.

[Former Member]

dallyanusha,

Let me try to understand your question for all the forum community.

Though the sales in Ramadan season is high, this season cannot be defined using English (Gregorian) calendar. The Ramadan is on different calendar days/months every year. Thus, the demand pattern as well would vary as the Ramadan dates change.

SCM/APO DP has seasonal forecasting which can address seasonality. Now the question is that whether we can make SCM to understand Ramadan days in the future calendar and apply the seasonal trend exactly to those dates?

I hope I have understood this right.

BR,

SB

[Former Member]

Hi Dallyanusha,

I suggest you to consider the Ramadan as a promotion.

You could use promotion to clean history and correct future forecast.

You can even run some analysis to see the impact of your promotion on your sales.

This seems to me the easiest way...

Thanks and Regards

Julien