SAP F&R:: Trend + Seasonality

[Former Member]

Hi Guys,

I have been trying to generate forecast for a set of consumption data where the data has a trend and a seasonality component. However, when I generate the forecast, the system at best ONLY takes into account the trend in the forecast. The seasonal patterns are completely IGNORED in the generated forecast values. Is there a way (other than using DIFs) of making the system consider and replicate the seasonal patterns in the forecast generated? Or am I inputing wrong kind of data?

Someone please throw some light on the issue.

[former_member407401 · Accepted solution]

Hello,

Please see the documentation regarding the regression method, and regression method parameters documentation in customizing forecast profiles(spro).

Thanks,

Best regards,

Nicolas

[Former Member]

Dear Nicolas, I did go through the documentation. Infact, I had done that before posting my query on the thread. However, I am still not able to resolve the issue.

Was wondering if I could get your personal contact deatils, so that I could send you some screen dumps.

Once again stating the problem:

I have data which contains TREND + SEASONALITY. When I execute a forecast, I want the system to replicate the trend and the seasonality in the forecasted values. However, RIGHT NOW, I am unable to find such patterns in the forecast.

Queries are as below:

1. Does F&R have the capability at all to replicate TREND + SEASONALITY. Or because it is meant for short term planning, it automatically corrects the forecast for the TRENDS & SEASONALITY.

2. If it has the capability, please tell me the EXACT SETTINGS, and not just the documentation.

Thanks.

[hans-georg_kloep]

hello,

I have to guess and will hope that I will have a good guess ...

Please check the assigned forecast profile (profile is assigned on location product level).

I guess forecast method "Regression" is used

I guess the value of the setting "Resolution" = 1.

I guess "automatic parameter optimization" is not active.

If this is the case seasonality is not active, because the resolution is one year and not parts of the year.

Therefore I would like to suggest to change the content of "Resolution" manually to a value greater 1.

an other option might be to active "automatic parameter optimization" and schedule this job. this job will determine the resolution automatically. a flag of the forecast profile controls if these results will be considered by forecast calculation or not. this flag is also part of the settings about Forecast Method Regression.

have success,

Hans-Georg

[Former Member]

Dear Hans- Georg,

Thank you for the detailed reply. I would like to mention a few things here in response to your reply. I already has the settings which you mentioned, in place. However, I am still unable to replicate a trend + seasonality pattern in the forecast. What the system essentially does or is capable of doing is to reproduce either ONLY TREND or ONLY SEASONALITY- I am unable to reproduce a combination of both.

Have you any more suggestions?

[hans-georg_kloep]

hello,

if you still have the described settings in place SEASONALITY is not active since the resolution is = 1.

Please use the automatic parameter optimization to determine e.g.

- forecast method

- resolution and adaptivity for regression

- seasonlality for smoothing.

each of the forecast method has a lets say "prefered area".

Seasonality and trend should be able in parallel but the single impact/influence could be different if settings of one of these have been changed.

so, it it difficult to discuss about this issue whithout any data. I think it should be possible and the automatic parameter optimization process should provide a good solution to solve this decision automatically. you can activate the automatic parameter optimization in the respective FRP process control profile. in addition you have to perform the process itself.

best regards, Hans-Georg